When it comes to the world of horror cinema, observing certain trends and patterns can provide valuable insights for filmmakers and film enthusiasts. From the peak times to release a horror film to the relationship between budget and revenue, I dive into horror movie data using Python and Tableau. All data was extracted using the TMDB (The Movie Database) API. View the Tableau dashboard here.
It is no surprise that October, the spookiest month of the year, tops the list for the highest number of horror movie releases. October, along with August and September, consistently sees a surge in horror films hitting the big screen. Strategically and financially, it could make sense to release horror movies in preparation for Halloween, but this could also bring heightened competition. Classic movies like Night of the Living Dead, an influential and timeless horror film, and the original Halloween movie were both released in October. For the remaining months, there is notable consistency throughout the year; however, April and June surprisingly offer higher than expected releases. My three personal favorites, Get Out (2018), Hereditary (2018), and Smile (2022), were released in February, June, and September, respectively.
When it comes to generating a return on investment (ROI), July stands out as the clear leader amongst the months despite not being a peak month for horror releases. This month benefits from a few standout films, including the iconic The Blair Witch Project, which boasts the highest ROI ever recorded for a horror movie. This suggests that while the quantity of releases in a particular month might vary, strategic timing and standout films can yield impressive returns. Additionally, there is a higher ROI variance/standard deviation in months with more releases as shown in the table in the next section.
As mentioned previously, there is a huge variance in months with a high volume of releases, particularly in September and October. This would mean that although September and October could yield favorable results in certain instances, especially moviegoers who are preparing for Halloween, there is still risk involved. Because the standard deviation is significantly high across all the months, it's better to understand other movies you're competing with at the time of release, the demographics for horror movies in general (and your audience, if possible), have effective marketing, and study any trends for your particular type of horror movie (e.g., slasher, psychological).
It (2017) remains the highest grossing horror film of all time. This could be due to nostalgia from the 1990's TV movie, the success of the original Stephen King book, the sightings of clown in the U.S. around the time -- or it was just a great movie! Jaws (1975) and The Exorcist (1973) have been able to generate substantial revenue over the decades as classic horror movies. In this graph and the next, use the following legend.
Budget plays a crucial role in a film’s financial success, but it does not guarantee it. The trend line comparing revenue to budget reveals that most horror movies, around 68%, achieve a positive ROI. Notably, even films with high budgets, such as "Van Helsing" with a $160 million budget, can see positive returns. However, caution is warranted as other high-budget films like "Haunted Mansion" and "The Wolfman" did not perform as well. This trend underscores that while higher budgets can often lead to better financial outcomes, low-budget independent films have also shown remarkable success, sometimes yielding extraordinary ROIs.
For those venturing into horror filmmaking, the key takeaway is to balance your budget with creativity. If you have the financial resources, investing in a higher budget can be advantageous. However, low-budget films have proven that they can also be highly successful and even become cult classics. Sometimes, the charm of a "so-bad-it’s-good" movie can capture the audience’s imagination just as effectively as a high-budget production. In the end, whether you are working with a large budget or a small one, the essence of a great horror film often lies in its creativity and ability to engage viewers. So, whether you are crafting a high-budget spectacle or a charmingly cheesy indie flick, there’s room for success in the world of horror cinema.
